Assessment of Energy Transition Pathways Based on Hybrid Dynamic Simulation

    • Presentation speakers
      • Bin Cai, Research Engineer, State Grid Electric Power Research Institute

    Energy systems simulation is an important method used to generate a range of insight and analysis on the energy transition. However, any transition of today’s energy system to a clean future is not only a technical-economic matter. The behaviors of individual actors such as energy supplier, energy consumers, and policy makers also shape energy system transitions. However, mathematical agent-based models can hardly reflect the behaviors of individual actors, especially their “bound-rationality” characteristics. Experimental economics is a useful methodology to study heterogeneous human behaviors under a controlled experiment environment. However, the scale of experiment is limited due to the difficulty to have enough qualified human participants to be involved in the simulation as actors. Therefore, we propose a hybrid simulation methodology combining experimental and agent-based computational methods, and develop a Dynamic Simulation platform for Macro-Energy Systems (DSMES). Obligatory indexes and performance indexes are extracted from simulation trajectories to assess the energy transition goals and pathways of a nation, a region, or an energy enterprises, proving decision support for energy supplier, energy consumers, and policy makers.


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