The analysis and control of carbon risk based on hybrid simulation method

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    • Presentation speakers
      • Jie Huang, Senior Research Engineer, State Grid Electric Power Research Institute

    As an effective measure for regulating the greenhouse gas emissions, Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) has been widely implemented. Market designers and participants are in urgent need of decision-support tools with quantitative risk analysis capability. However, one of the biggest challenges lies in that the physical laws, economic laws and human behaviors are intertwined in the emission risk prevention and control problem. While the physical laws and economic laws can be modeled mathematically, human behaviors cannot be easily modeled. In this research, a hybrid simulation method is developed and adopted for the sensitivity analysis of different factors influencing emission market. First, the interactions between the power system and the climate system are examined and the hybrid simulation method is introduced. Second, based on the hybrid simulation, sensitivity analysis of key influencing factors on emission price is conducted. Finally, based on the practices of a power system blackout defense system, an emission risk prevention and control framework is proposed.

 

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